Commenting on latest Nationwide house price data showing a 2.2% increase, Daniel Austin, CEO and co-founder at ASK Partners, said: “The rise in UK house prices points to underlying resilience, but momentum remains constrained by affordability pressures and a ‘higher for longer’ interest rate environment. While recent rate cuts signal easing inflation, they are unlikely to materially shift market dynamics in the near term.
“Mortgage pricing has improved at the margin, yet buyer and developer confidence remains fragile, particularly following a Budget that offered limited direct support for housing.
“At the same time, markets are beginning to factor in the potential downstream impact of the Iran conflict. While not yet fully reflected in headline inflation, it is widely expected to exert upward pressure on costs. This uncertainty is already feeding into lending conditions, with close to 1,000 mortgage products reportedly withdrawn since the onset of the conflict, further weighing on buyer activity.
“As a result, the market is being shaped more by structural than cyclical forces. The UK’s relative economic resilience, including forecast growth of around 1.4% and sustained interest from Gulf and Southeast Asian capital, is supporting long-term confidence.
“In the near term, however, demand is shifting towards structurally undersupplied, income-driven sectors, particularly build-to-rent and co-living in well-connected suburban and commuter locations, alongside logistics, data centres and self-storage.
“While proposed planning and affordable housing reforms may improve scheme viability at the margin, elevated construction and financing costs continue to weigh on delivery. A clearer and sustained decline in inflation, and, in turn, interest rates towards the 3.5% range, will be the key catalyst for unlocking stalled development.
“Until then, capital is likely to remain focused on resilient, income-generating segments. Real estate debt, in particular, stands out as an attractive route to secure returns while maintaining downside protection in a still cautious and evolving market landscape.”
